Ellipses

CONSERVATIVES argue — and rightly so — that guns don’t kill people, people kill people. I.E., don’t focus on instrumentalities, focus on behavior. Particularly, focus on the behavior which directly causes harm.

And then they turn right around and swear on a stack of bibles that drugs kill.

No, dear. The the plural of anecdote is not data.

THE IDEAL WATCHBOX as set up by NOAA or USHCN or one of those Alphabits breakfasts of champions things is one degree on its side. In longitude at the equator, that’s 65 miles, give or take a little. At 45 degrees, or halfway up the total from the equator to the pole, that’s 44-45 miles in longitude, but still 65 miles in latitude (along a great circle meridian, at any rate). That is to say that the climate alarmists would have us believe that one temperature in that much area, with all those boxes averaged would give you enough data to determine the temperature of the earth and the direction and magnitude of any change.

If the phrase “lost in the noise” doesn’t mean anything to you, you might not be laughing right now. Otherwise…

Essentially, the climate alarmists are presenting us with lots of anecdotal evidence and pretending — because there’s so MUCH of it, and they can do fancy shit with it in a computer — they’re showing us data.

IN NEITHER OF the two situations sketched above is there sufficient data to show in any meaningful way what the state of affairs might be.

THE BEHAVIOR OF markets and economies is pretty well understood. The incentives are known, and the aggregate reactions of billions of individuals to them fairly predictable. None of this knowledge is particularly new. Nor is there any lack of empirical evidence to support the knowledge. Yet, we can’t get governments to butt out and let markets work their singular miracles. What makes you think the government’s wisdom is any greater in another other arena?

I’VE JUMPED AROUND QUITE A BIT to get here as quickly as possible. You can take my word for it that the leaps I’ve taken can be justified, I’ve merely taken advantage of shortcuts I’ve known. OR… You can do your own digging around and figure it out for yourself.

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